ECONOMIC SURVEY

How many of our so-called knowledge fraternity really care about the Economic Survey (there may be a few questioning what is it?). It calls for serious introspection particularly when you project yourself as the ones who are interested (partners) in the economic development and growth of the nation. The budget which hardly has an impact in the most immediate short term hogs our attention, whereas a document which looks far behind to identify the path for growth in the long term is horrendously ignored. This is an attempt to throw light on the economic survey which is presented each year. The salient feature of Economic Survey 2009-10 will post in a separate one.

The economic survey is a report on the performance of the economy over the past year, its comparison with the past and providing its outlook for the future. This document is an honest analysis of the performance of the economy. The economic survey is usually presented to the nation, a day before the budget each year, prepared by eminent economist part of the finance ministry and the planning commission. The finance minister tables it before both the houses of the Parliament. If analysed in detail, it is a document containing the history and also near-perfect prediction of the economy in the future (bet you, there can be no astrologer who can tell your future, these guys tell the future of the nation). The economic survey is a narrative with key statistical data supporting the analysis and conclusions.

The economic survey 2009-10 contains the following chapters:

· State of the economy and prospects: Commentary on overall growth of the economy over the year, overall GDP growth, sector-wise growth, reasons for shortfall/excess of growth over projections, quarterly trend of the growth, per capita income growth, demand and consumption, sector-wise production and supply, savings pattern in the country, Inflation during the year, details of balance of payments, foreign exchange reserves, impact of monetary and fiscal policy, short and medium term prospects are given in this chapter. This section gives an idea of the pattern of growth over years, sectors which are at various stages of its life-cycle and the demand-supply pattern and expectations. These also provide an insight into the potential growth of existing business and viability for new businesses based on the needs of the economy.

· Micro-foundations of inclusive growth: Contains details of how the distribution of growth has taken place in the economy, the challenges face by the economy for inclusive growth, measures taken by government to overcome the challenges of poverty, the measures taken in the form of subsidies, the bureaucratic costs and delays affecting the economy, impact of inflation and availability of food are discussed in this section. This gives an insight into the shortcomings of the economy to stand up to the global needs and growth, particularly with reference to China.

· Fiscal developments and Public finance: The receipts and expenditure statistics of the exchequer, revenue from various taxes, interest liabilities on internal and external funding for the government, plan outlay, outstanding liabilities of the government, performance of government enterprises like railways and post, revenue and fiscal deficits of the states are discussed. This gives a picture of the financial position of the Government. These are like financial statement analysis and can make out where the government is keen to tap revenues and cut down expenditures.

· Prices and monetary management: Analysis of wholesale price index which is taken as base for calculation of inflation, food inflation, main drivers of inflation, city-wise inflation trends, monetary developments like reserve money, liquidity management, repo and reverse repo rates, money market operations and rates, treasury bills, yields of government bonds and outlook are outlined in this chapter. Impact of inflation on each product, for each city and the trend vis-à-vis global trend are elaborated.

· Financial intermediation and markets: Bank operations with respect to credits, deposits and those of financial institutions role as financial market intermediaries, sectoral development of credit, agricultural credit, performance of commercial banks, Commodity markets, currency markets primary and secondary market performance of the economy, debt market and derivatives market performances are analysed in this section. This is one stop source for all those information flowing in the business news channels on stock markets and banking system of the country.

· Balance of Payments: Country’s BOP position in the midst of the challenges of the economic slowdown, current account balances, transaction on capital accounts and foreign exchange reserves, foreign exchange rates over the year and significant developments are discussed in this section. The strength of the economy on the basis of reserves and BOP can be determined from this section.

· International trade: Export trends globally, India’s export trend across various countries and various products, also import trends, direction of trade, India’s position globally, service sector international trade, suggestions for policies for service sector are discussed in this section. India’s present position in the global market and the measures for future is often discussed here.

· Agriculture and food management: Analysis of the entire agriculture sector highlighting contribution of private sector, public sector, foodgrains production, impact of rainfall and monsoons, policy for the sector are discussed in this section.

· Industry: Growth in outputs, performance of each of the sector, flow of finances for the sector, credit availability, policy measure taken for each of the sector and needed for those sectors, project appraisal status and challenges and outlook are discussed in this section. A smart businessperson has enough information to strategise the growth of the business in this section.

· Energy, Infrastructure and Communications: A special emphasis on the much needed resources for the economy is discussed for the present status, prospects and challenges to be addressed, ways of addressing and the outlook. One of the factors in the fundamental analysis of an economy is detailed out.

· Human development, poverty and public programme: Human development index, social sector expenses pattern, poverty status, measuring of the population below poverty line, determination of below poverty line category, employment status and various populist schemes of the government are discussed here in this section.

Economics is such an interesting subject that provides insight into every detail of the country, in the process better understanding often results in successful ventures for those who understand and utilize the reports of the government. Now that we know what exactly is in the economic survey document, we shall try to be literate of the status of the nation and indirectly take any other advantages attached with that, which is reward for being aware of your own economy.

The Barack Obama address of the Congress

President of the United States of America delivered State of the Union address today, which is meant to inform the people of America, the status of their country. The speech was a typically Obama fashioned, just speaking on the occasion.

The key factor of this speech, though was decorated to be patriotism, but what I sensed was a President pleading for the pride and credibility that he had lost in just one year of office. Sure, being President of the United States isn't easy, because thats the nation which never looks unto itself, rather intrudes into affairs of territories around the world. United States is the country which still believes that it still is a super power and without it, the world would suffer. But United States is not a might that it believes it to be. Historically, Americans have lived advocating what others around the world would do and forgetting that slowly the glory of America is fading away.

This address of the President is to make Americans realise where there ground is. But the Americans are far above the ground that any attempt to land them would not be without hurting itself. Nevertheless, if the trend had continued, the damage would have been severe, because the more they move away from the ground, the greater the depth of the fall. Probably its not the wrong time for such realisation.

US was really marred by the fact that there was acute unemployment in the US when he took over. And he took pride by saying that the worst is over, but yet would like to continue the good work. He was selling his healthcare reforms agenda aggressively as he had been doing in the recent past. He mentioned about children writing letter to him about the distress in their family due to unemployment.

A classic quote, I used wonder about the first part of it, "why it seems like bad behavior on Wall Street is rewarded, but hard work on Main Street isn't". The President is truly inspirational. His speech always motivates and instigates. From this moment, he was addressing the election rally.

He talked about bailout being hated by all including him, but why it was essential, doing what is popular than what was necessary. The novel concept came in where he proposed fee on the banks which benefited from the bailout plans, stating that when these banks can pay big bonuses again, why not the taxpayers who helped them when needed. Next was unemployement issue and the tax cuts offered to individuals and smaller businesses, college students and how that had saved jobs of 2 million Americans.

He proposed new jobs bill by glamorous statements about the Recovery Act, which had saved jobs of millions of Americans. He proposed to promote credit institutions in smaller towns, offer credit for smaller businesses. Next was infrastructure, clean energy development and he included clean-energy use by house-holds. There are variety of other issues he spoke.

He spoke about both Democrats and Republicans working together for the United States. He mentioned bills should not be delayed just because one has the right to delay. He touchingly spoke about the military personnel of the US and promised to take back troops from Iraq. He finished by saying: "We don't quit. I don't quit. Let's seize this moment, to start anew, to carry the dream forward, and to strengthen our union once more."

I watched this on television. There were applauses, just by sitting, standing, from democrats alone, both. But there were a set of 10-15 people sitting in front, who never gave a reaction, don't know who they are, what is their role, but guess they are meant to remain like that. Parliamentary proceeding in such a decent fashion is hard to see in our country, atleast we will appreciate for the decorum that was maintained throughout.

A law soon on sexual abuse

With the Ruchika's and Jessica's case getting attention from the media, and people of the country standing in unison against power-backed officials and politicians, there is some momentum in the judicial process and also government response. Though these cases and a few others were brought under the scanner, there are definitely thousands of such cases across India which are not being reported.

Now coming back to government response, the government has decided to come up with sexual offenses (special courts) law to provide quick justice to victims of sexual abuse.

According to the law, sexual abuse is to be treated on par with rape and provides for stringent punishments for both, presently only one year imprisonment.
Sexual abuse will include both physical and mental harassment and both are treated on par for punishment.
Onus to prove suicide was not due to harassment lies on the accused.
Special courts to deal with sexual abuse cases on fast track basis within 6 months.

Certainly, law makers are being proactive in drafting a legislation which is waiting for cabinet clearance (cabinet will clear only when none of them will be convicted against any offense under the law and after making sure there are enough loopholes for them to go unscratched, in case opposition comes to power).

Next, what will be considered as sexual abuse? According to wikipedia, "is the forcing of undesired sexual behaviour by one person upon another". This is alright and anybody can reasonably understand such abuse. And it also covers "any behaviour by any adult towards a child to stimulate either the adult or the child sexually". These are one of the various other forms of abuse, which may not be included in the category of sexual abuse at first place, but in fact it may have been sexual abuse.

It is in these circumstances that it will be difficult to define and track what an abuse is. There will be thousands of cases on daily basis which will not be known as abuse to either to offender or the victim. So, there may be cases where abuses are not reported or certain abuses which were not intended being reported.

What is necessary is awareness, particulary amongst the younger generations of today. These days a lot of abuse is being considered as fun, which is socially, culturally and personally harmful. And these are impact of westernisation, that today's generation do not attach significance to - - mind you because of westernisation and not modernisation. Modernisation is adapting to changes and westernisation is adopting the changes.

Before any such legislation, let us be aware of what an abuse is.

The Chetan Bhaghat Stunt Sequence

One of the most coherent stunt display was on ever since Christmas and it was for free!!! Absolutely cheap.... Cheap for the viewers, costly for pure hearts and riches for the crooked. Yes this is about you and me (viewers), the 3idiots team and the Lion(ess) of Punjab - Chetan Bhaghat.

3 Idiots, movie starring Aamir Khan, which was under production over the last year and was most eagerly awaited movie of the year. The movie is directed by munna-bhai fame Raj Kumar Hirani and produced by Vidhu Vinodh Chopra. The script was based on a novel by renowned (only renouned and not respected) Indian author Chetan Bhaghat 5 Point Someone. The novel was national bestseller. CB over-night was the most celebrated Indian author, later came up with books One night @ call center, 3 mistakes of my life and 2 states being the latest. The screeplay for the movie was co-written by Abhijhit Joshi with Raj. The 3I team has signed an agreement with CB for their script was based on the book.

Sensing the overwhelming response that the movie would receive, CB having watched the preview of the movie decided on a ploy. This is how he executed it successfully. The credit for his novel was given at the end after the names of key artists and technicians in the movie. Yes, many would not have watched the credits at the end, as is normally the case with every movie. Wonder how many would have watched Aamir's name which was first in the list of credits at the end of the movie. Nevertheless, CB, wanting for publicity so badly plunged into action, accusing the 3I team of being unfair by adopting 70% of his book as movie and not giving him the due credit (will come up separately on this topic of how much % the book resembled the movie). He started accusing VVS, then Raj, but was not indulging any action against Aamir (a careful approach).

With the help of the action starven media and a few sensation starven media (HT, STAR, TN), he was quite successful in turing the media against the 3I team. In the meantime CB was continuing with his twitter and blog expressing his dismay and playing the holy cow. The tweets and blogs were so emotional, I (having neither read the book nor watched the movie) was convinced that the 3I team had held a conspiracy against CB and had in fact betrayed CB. The pressure bogged up. I believed that writers in the Indian cine world are not given due credit and the film-makers rob away with the credit.

Ultimately, justice has to prevail and atleast I was unvieled of the true face of CB. This happened due to series of events. First the press conference in which the 3I team was fired from all cyclinders (if these journos are really clever wits, wonder how constructive media would be) was decisive. When VVC was emotional and Aamir, blasting out at CB while Raj and Abhijit was keeping their cool, it was an indication of what the truth is. I was still confused about the truth. Then came the twister from CB. In continuation of his series of bluff on the issue through his blog, CB came out with a compromise solution, while the 3I team was never into dialogue with him. He wanted his name to be included in the script-writers and was generous enough to have his name after Raj and Abhijit, next, he loves Aamir and he has nothing against Aamir. Also he had publicly posted in his blog, private mails exchanges between the 3I team (the reply from VVC' brother Vir was a majestic reply).

These were clearly indicative of a stunt being performed by CB for the cheapest publicity ever possible for him. Now his book sales are up (can't argue that it was marginal), he has gained visibility among a section of people who never knew him and there are other opportunities for him to write columns in newspapers (Vir should never feel about the unprofessional exit of CB from HT, it is a blessing in disguise - HT should never have such people on-board).

Now, CB is a man of disrespect, dishonesty, betrayal and face of ugly publicity stunt. And the entire 3I team has gained a place of respect in me.

Markets opening early

This new year Indian stock exchange barometers, BSE and NSE are set to open at 9 AM in the morning. This was with a view to facilitate investors to react to other Asian markets cues. And the decision was taken with wide market participant's consensus. At least on initial reactions aired on Business News channels and Business Dailies suggest that there was lack of market consensus on the issue. The stock exchanges seem to have unilaterally decided on the issue. Though participants included brokers, they were larger ones and they also intended consensus from the participants.

What does this extended trading hour mean?

This mean additional trading hour. Earlier markets opened at 9.55 AM 3.30 PM. This additional trading hour means additional trade. This trade impacts the stock exchanges, depositories, depository participants and largely the stock brokers. For example, the number of trades in Nifty on 31st December 2009 when the markets last opened at 9.55 AM, was 58,09,802 and the average for the entire month was 59,80,000. The trade for today is 63,99,108. Though this may be a marginal increase, bet it will be much more in the coming days. This increase in trade means extended settlement process. The stock brokers is required to maintain more sophisticated books of account. They need to send reports to customers on a daily basis. Imagine the volume of work that would increase.

For all, they have to work after trading hours and also have to set up things ready for next day morning for beginning of trading. This will definitely impact the personal time of the stock brokers and those working with stock brokers. Increased work pressure will obviously mean lesser output.

On the lighter side, we will have news channels covering an extra hour of market, relief from investigative journalism that they carry on these days (manufacturing news), relief from the "how do you react to the allegations???, now its time to respond" to VIPs, relief from "First on....." statements.

My take, the stock market operations does not start at 9 and end at 3.30. It is atleast 6 hours of additional work than the trading hours. This effectively works out to 12 and 1/2 hours of additional work. Lesser time for family, greater stress, more divorces, more ruins to our culture, lesser time to relax (after all stock markets are full of stress).

Get back the decision.

Cricket administration at its worst best

Dear Mr. Chetan Chauhan

Happy times at DDCA. Congratulations to you and Mr. Jaitley for carrying the DDCA with such honour for such a long period of time. Its amazing how people are not jealous of your good work and wish to replace you. May be your co-administrators understand that no else could do the job better than you. Congratulations for keeping them at bay.

I was delighted at your presence in "The Verdict" Program on NDTV 24X7 at the first place. Second for your stupendous answers to the questions that were iced against you. You handled it with ease. Have never seen such a cool head for a long time or may be I am not watching these kind of shows that often.

Coming to my amuse of how DDCA is so well-managed, a few studs that I remember I recall. Firstly it was a Delhi based lawyer who wanted to know why much money was spent on liqour and not on facilities. Obviously he has no business asking this, that too through a petition in court under RTI. People do not realise the importance of social gathering and the importance of those who gather at those meetings. No right whatsoever can a cricket fan have over the affairs of the association or the Board.

Second, there were few matches where there 20000 persons left stranding outside the stadium for the match with valid tickets. Reason, which is good enough is that there were other valid tickets issued by the officials of DDCA. Validity is what we determine and not the fans.

Next, Sehwag threatening to move out of Delhi and other eminent players following suit for ill-administration at DDCA. No that cannot be said by a player. These players do not know how to run an administration. They pestering about it and with the MUSCLE power we can sort things as it was done, finally great cricketer made to surrender his ego.

Now, there is another climax. But the end I know for sure would be the same. You and Mr. Jaitley remaining in the DDCA as you are. Thank god that Delhi match was not the decider. I so perturbed that I do not want to speak anything else.

Once again so delighted at your blame shame today. Trying to find a scapegoat. Taking moral responsibility and downing from the DDCA pitches committee chairman. There was one statement that I would recall - "though I was not involved in the preparation of the pitch and I was supervising, I took moral responsibility and stepped down as chairman of Pitches committee of DDCA...". By the way, the chairman is responsible for the pitch that is prepared on behalf of the association. Chairman does not mean sitting in a chair and supervising. It is responsibility and not a moral one.

Hope to see you soon when the IPL season begins. Till then Best wishes for your efforts to make KOTLA pitch, a world class one.

With worst regards

Ravi Krishnan